Nantoo Banerjee
Indian diplomacy has shown a great character and maturity by not taking sides in the Ukraine crisis in the face of a warlike situation there involving the US-led NATO and Russia. All the key actors engaged in building a highly belligerent situation over Ukraine are some of India's best friends. They include Russia, the US, NATO members and, of course, Ukraine. India is trying its best to get the tension defused diplomatically. Prime Minister Narendra Modi already spoke with President Vladimir Putin. The high tension between Russia and Ukraine needs to be defused fast through diplomacy and discussion. Both sides must give up fire power and go for a lusting truce.
The Modi-Putin telephonic talk on February 24 came on a day when President Putin also had a meeting with Pakistan's visiting Prime Minister Imran Khan. An official press release from the government of India stated that “President Putin briefed the Prime Minister about the recent developments regarding Ukraine” and “Prime Minister reiterated his long-standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue.” Further, it added that “ Prime Minister appealed for an immediate cessation of violence, and called for concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue”.
On another level, India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishanker spoke to Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stressing the need for diplomacy and dialogue to ensure a lasting solution of the problem. India's permanent representative at the UN echoed the same at the UN Security Council emergency meeting, last week. Rightly, India abstained from voting alongside China and United Arab Emirates. India issued an ‘Explanation of Vote' (EoV) calling for “return to the path of diplomacy” and seeking immediate cessation of “violence and hostilities.”
It may be noted that India has been consistent with its policy to find a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis. In fact, India avoided taking sides despite provocation at a recent foreign ministers-level Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) at Melbourne in Australia on February 11, less than a fortnight before the Ukraine-Russia armed conflict exploded. India even managed to receive cooperation from the foreign ministers of the US, Australia and Japan on its principled independent line on the Ukraine conflict. While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa took a sharp line on the build up of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine, India's External Affairs Minister Jaishankar chose an independent stand that ultimately seemed to find a reasonable appreciation from all. As a result, the Russia-Ukraine situation did not find any mention in the joint statement.
Last week, a Ukraine-Russia armed conflict looked inevitable after President Putin's public announcement of Russia's recognition of two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine – Donetsk and Lugansk – as “independent” putting NATO in a tight spot. Interestingly, Ukraine is still not a NATO member. Ukraine was promised membership by NATO in 2008 but none of the constituents worked towards that. Ukraine was merely accepted as an ‘enhanced opportunity partner' by NATO in 2020. NATO members did not seem to be ready to give a full membership status to Ukraine as it could invite permanent confrontation with Moscow, a major supplier of energy and food to a number of west European countries.
Under the collective defensive principle of NATO, if any member is attacked all other members would have to plunge into the fight whether they like it or not. Inducting Ukraine in the NATO grouping would require consensus from all its 30 members. Actually, some of the NATO members do recognise Ukraine's strife-torn history over the last several centuries and its strong Russian connect. While Putin says Ukraine was always part of Russia, it came completely under Moscow's rule in the 18th century during the reign of Catherine the Great. With China having thrown its weight in favour of Russia — both permanent members at UNSC — the Ukraine crisis is proving to be a real test for countries in Europe, the US, the UN and even India, which has always maintained a good relationship with Ukraine alongside Russia over the years.
Both the US and Russia are among India's most important friends and allies. The two rival nuclear superpowers recognise India's position. Lately, India and the US are moving forward on a wide-ranging set of initiatives from cooperating to fight the pandemic, scaling up action to address climate change, working bilaterally and through the QUAD, expanding cooperation in trade and investment, cyber, and in new and emerging technologies. The US has been constantly critical about China's aggressive behaviour on the border with India and Pakistan-originated terror attacks on India. The strategic partnership between India and the US have deepened over the last 15 years. The US supports India's emergence as a leading global power and vital partner in efforts to ensure that the Indo-Pacific is a region of peace, stability, and growing prosperity and economic inclusion. The two of the world's largest democracies are working on a wide range of diplomatic, economic and security issues.
On the other hand, the age-old India-Russia relationship continues to remain strong. This is despite divergent geopolitical and strategic drift in recent times with Russia embracing China and Pakistan, known as sworn adversaries of India. Both China and Pakistan are now major Russian arms importers. The closer China-Russia ties may also be linked possibly to China's seeking Russian support in case it decides to militarily overpower the Taiwanese regime to establish effective territorial control on the island.
Interestingly, Russia continues to be the largest military and nuclear ware supplier to India. Russia highly appreciates India's sticking to its procurement of the S-400 Russian missiles system despite the US threat of sanctions. Last year, India also signed a major AK-203 procurement deal with Russia and extended military-technical cooperation contract for another 10 years. Recently, President Putin had said: “the relation between India and Russia is truly a unique and reliable model of interstate friendship…. We perceive India as a great power, a friendly nation, and a time-tested friend. The relations between our nations are growing, and I am looking into the future.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Russia this year to attend the 22nd annual Russian-Indian summit.
Notably, India is strongly pursuing a behind the door campaign to solve the Ukraine crisis diplomatically. It believes that war is no answer to the crisis. Violence alone can't establish lasting peace in the region. It may only complicate the matter. Diplomacy should be given a chance for reconciliation. India's stake in the Ukraine conflict is quite high if one considers its social, cultural, economic, educational, scientific and defence involvement with each of the countries engaged in the current military showdown. Taking sides will spoil India's multifaceted relationship built over the years with these countries, now engaged in the conflict. India strongly favours de-escalation of the situation and resolution of the crisis through diplomatic dialogue. (IPA Service)
