By Harminder Kaur (ADNI)
Once again, uncertainty looms large over the fate of the people of Afghanistan as the Taliban have successfully overthrown the US-backed government of Ashraf Ghani, who has fled the country. With the return of the Taliban at stake is the future of the people of Afghanistan, especially women, education of the girl child, democratic institutions, and civil society.
No one at this point knows about the future of the people of Afghanistan and the minorities in that country. Multilevel activities are going on at the moment, with different countries standing for and against the Taliban. In solid support are Pakistan, China and Russia. Their Embassies hold the fort while the US, India and many other countries have closed their embassies. Also, multilateral negotiations between countries of the western world and with a Taliban delegation in Doha are on.
Countries like Germany, the UK and many European countries have expressed concern over how events have played out. There is no clarity on the future of the people of Afghanistan. They had started enjoying the fruits of democracy, development and a liberal government. But their lives have once again been thrown into chaos with an uncertain future staring them in their face.
The visuals of people thronging the international airport trying to board a UN Air Force aircraft demonstrated the desperation of the people trying to flee the country as the Taliban took control of Kabul and the Presidential Palace.
What seemed unbelievable was that the 300,000 strong Afghan Army trained and armed by the US just capitulated before the Taliban. The hope of the US and NATO that the Afghan military could handle the 75000 Taliban dashed to the ground as the Taliban started capturing Province after Province without any resistance.
It is equally incredible that the US President, Joe Biden, stated unequivocally, the US forces’ exit from Afghanistan had no parallels with its exit from Saigon. While reality played out exactly the opposite. US Army soldiers flew their helicopter from the rooftop of their base just as it happened in Saigon in 1973. Even predictions by US intelligence agencies that Kabul would fall in 30 days was wide off the mark.
If chaos returns to Afghanistan, the US must squarely take the blame. The least they could have done during their two-decade presence in Afghanistan was to disarm the Taliban. For they were responsible for arming them when they led the resistance movement against the Soviet occupation of their country.
World Concerns
The Taliban supports al-Qaeda in return for resources and training. The world fears that under Taliban rule Afghanistan will become a haven for terrorists. There is also a big question mark over whether the Taliban will allow Afghanistan to plan a terrorist attack on another country from its soil? Already, there are reports that 2200 militants of the Islamic State of Khorasan have entered Afghanistan.
The Taliban today is far more organised than it was in 1996. It maintains complete control over its fighters and officials throughout Afghanistan. The leadership council is called the Quetta Shura, named after the Pak city where Mullah Omar and his top aides took refuge after the US invaded the country in 2001.
Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhunzada is the current amir or “Commander of the faithful. Three deputies support him – Mullah Mohammad Yaqoup, son of the late cleric Mullah Omar. He is in charge of ideological and religious affairs. Sirajuddin Haqqani oversees the insurgency, and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar leads the Taliban delegation in peace talks. Haqqani is also the acting head of the Haqqani Network, a militant group in Afghanistan’s southeast and Pakistan’s northwest, which has close ties with the Taliban, al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s ISI. In addition, it has more than a dozen commissions and administrative organs. Each of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan has a shadow governor and a battlefield commander. The council has pronounced differences over the peace process. So, the return of the Taliban is punctuated with doubts at every step.
Background
The US forces ousted the Taliban in 2001 in the aftermath of al-Qaeda backed attacks on the twin towers in New York. The Taliban had ruled the country from 1996 until the US invasion in 2001. The US ousted the Taliban regime for providing refuge to al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden, the architect of attacks on the twin towers. But they regrouped in Pakistan and have continued their insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul for two decades. It is predominantly Pashtun but has expanded its base since 1996.
In the last two decades, the international community joined the US-led efforts to oust the Taliban and bolster Afghanistan’s elected government, democratic institutions and civil society. The US’ troops peaked with a 100,000 strength in 2011. They were supported by 1,30,000 forces of The North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation or NATO, from 50 countries since 2003. The support of NATO in Afghanistan was its first operational commitment outside Europe.
Together, the US and NATO started rebuilding war-torn Afghanistan. Its international partners contributed 75 % of the government’s public expenditures and pledged a hefty 3.3 billion in aid in 2020.
There was hope that bloodshed would come to an end when the Taliban signed On February 9, 2020, the Taliban signed a peace agreement with the US on February 9, 2020. The negotiations centred around a power-sharing deal with the democratically elected Afghan government. But negotiations made little progress.
In the 20-year long insurgency, nearly 6000 US soldiers, 1100 NATO Forces, over 70000 Afghan troops and close to 50000 civilians lost their lives. The Taliban managed to withstand counter-insurgency operations from the world’s most potent security alliance – The North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation or NATO. As the US pulled out, the Taliban captured nearly 54 % of the Afghan territory by July 2021, whereas it had occupied only 20 % of Afghan provinces just a month ago. In fact, as the date of US withdrawal of its forces was drawing near the Taliban started capturing the countryside in May. Yet no one realised that the return of the Taliban would be so swift.
Who Are The Taliban?
The Taliban was formed in 1990 by Afghan mujahideen, who had resisted the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. US intelligence agency, the CIA and Pakistan intelligence agency, the ISI backed them. Pashtun tribe members who studied in Pak madrasas, seminaries, joined them in the resistance movement against the occupation of Afghanistan by the erstwhile Soviet Union.
The Pashtun’s are the predominant ethnic group of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pashtun’s live in the south and the east in Afghanistan and in the north and the west in Pakistan. In the 1990’s they won popular support of the people as they promised the rule of law after four years (1992-1996) of conflict among several militia groups. They successfully entered Kandahar in November 1994 to assuage the crime-ridden southern city and by September 1996 seized Kabul, the capital of the country from President, Burhanuddin Rabbani, an ethnic Tajik whom the Taliban viewed as corrupt and anti-Pashtun.
After seizing the capital, the Taliban declared Afghanistan as an Islamic Emirate. Mullah Mohammad Omar, a cleric and veteran of the anti-Soviet resistance movement, became their amir al-mu’minin or “Commander of the faithful.” The regime led by Mullah Mohammad Omar led the country until its overthrow by the US in 2001.
But soon, the people were disillusioned as the Pashtun’s jurisprudence was drawn from the Pashtun’s pre-Islamic tribal code and interpretations of Sharia and was tempered by Wahhabi doctrines of the madrasas’ Saudi benefactors.
They forced women to wear burqas, jailed men whose beards they deemed too short and banned television and music.
These memories are still alive in people’s minds. As soon as the return of the Taliban became official after they captured Kabul and the presidential palace, women made a beeline for buying burqas. Even though, they have granted a general amnesty to people who worked for the government and have asked them to return to work. But the people of Afghanistan are not too sure yet. Fear looms large. Given a choice, the common people would like to leave the country as has been made evident from the scenes that played out at the airport. The world too is watching with bated breath how the future plays out in Afghanistan. While the US has squarely blamed the political leadership of the country which fled with their return. – (ADNI)
