Juwaria Sufi
The Corona virus has triggered a concern worldwide in early January 2020, and further continues the outbreak infecting several people globally. The Novel Corona Virus previous identified only as the Wuhan virus, expanded to nearer countries and finally spreading its routes to India. Till mid of May the spread of virus spanned 185 countries, foremost effecting tourism industry which have occurred as one of the crucial drivers of development. According to WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), India is categorized as 3rd position among 185 countries in terms of Travel & Tourism's total contribution to GDP in 2018. India was ranked 34th in the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019 published by the World Economic Forum.
The virus spread to all continents through air transport and still propagates infection exponentially. To contain the spread, many countries partially/ completely closed their borders and cancelled all fights, and events including pilgrimages, heritages, tourist spots etc. As a result, global tourism has slowed down significantly. The World Travel & Tourism Council predicted a tourism related loss of up to US$ 2.1 trillion in 2021 and up to 75 million jobs (WTTC, 2021). The first case of the Covid-19 pandemic in India was reported on January 30, 2020. After the first reported case government started the passenger's scanning at all the airports. The Indian Government took immediate and first action on the air transport to shut down completely to fight against the disease Covid-19 and implemented first lockdown on March 25, 2020.
To minimize the spread, governments of every single nation have enforced border shutdowns, travel restrictions, and quarantine in their countries which constitute the world's largest economies, sparking fears of an impending economic crisis and recession. Due to COVID-19, there has been a huge number of cancellation of travel plans by both foreign and local tourists, besides a drop in both inbound and outbound tourism of about 67% & 52% respectively since January to February as compared to the similar period previous year.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the travel and tourism industry's employment loss is predicted to be 100.08 Million worldwide). In March 2020, the Government of India imposed a country wide lockdown and banned international flights and Visas. It came out obvious that COVID-19 is going to have a serious impact on the country's economy and on the tourism sector. Jammu and Kashmir, which is one of the biggest tourist attractions of the country, has been hit hard due to the COVID-19-induced pandemic and subsequent lockdown. United Tourism Forum member says, “According to an estimate, this industry has suffered a loss of about 1500 crores so far. The tourism industry of the valley contributes almost 8 per cent to the GDP of the Union Territory. However, the region has come to a standstill as places like Dal Lake , Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Pehlagam in Kashmir and Kud, Patnitop, Bhaderwah, in Jammu, are deserted. Tourism, which is the primary source of livelihood for lakhs of people in the Valley and Jammu division, has come to a standstill.
Being one of the developing nations known for her uniqueness in tradition, culture and unparalleled hospitality India is a major destination for many international tourists, creating several employment opportunities and generating taxes in India. The Indian tourism industry has created about 87.5 million jobs, with 12.75% of total employment, thereby contributing INR 194 billion to India's GDP (WTTC, 2018).
Tourism is a major source of revenue and employment in many countries. It is a generator of employment, income, tax collections and foreign exchange earnings. Moreover, the sector recorded a 3.2% growth from 2018, with 10.8 million foreign tourists arriving in India with a foreign exchange of USD 29.9 billion in 2019. Due to lockdowns, restrictions, there is a 66.4% decline in overseas tourists arrivals in India in March 2020 compared to 2019. It has been estimated that there will be about 40-50 million direct and indirect job losses in India, with an annual loss in revenue of around USD 17 billion in India (FICCI). According to the Indian Association of Tour Operators (IATO), the hotel, aviation and travel sector together may incur losses of about INR 8,500 crore due to travel restriction imposed on foreign tourists by India.
The travel industry, which includes airlines, hotels and restaurants, is estimated to shrink by 50% in 2021, which means a significant loss of jobs and revenue.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airlines worldwide are expected to lose a record of $84 billion in 2021, more than three times the loss made during the Global Financial Crisis (The World Economic Forum,). Most of the airlines are grounded. Hotels are closed due to fewer tourists and many five-star hotels turning into quarantine facilities. Most restaurateurs see operating costs rising further because of social distancing, hygiene, and sanitation-related costs. Therefore, sustaining during this crisis is a challenging task for the tourism industry. The Indian and World tourism industry seems to be entering into a great crisis which is also establishing a stock market crash in all the segments. India's and world's tourism industry is most affected as the potential tourists are not allowed to visit any country. This is leading to adverse impact on the India's GDP as the virus has not stopped from spreading and impacted the healthcare stability as well as the economic breakdown of activities.
The COVID-19 pandemic has reversed the way of life also. Now that the restrictions at the borders of the Union Territory have been uplifted, tourism may observe some growth. Many companies have acknowledged their staff to work from home; others are providing a change of place in the form of working from home stays. Many big tourism and hospitality brands such as Airbnb, Vista are jumping in with the aptitude of home stays as an alternative universe during the pandemic. As the home stays are becoming popular workstations during the pandemic, the usual guidelines in conjunction with accurate sanitization and face cover are being followed for home stays as well. The hotels are required to assure the safety of the guests. At almost every hotel, standard operating procedures such as sterilization, use of personal protective equipments by the staff in both F&B and housekeeping department and social distancing has become a new normal for the present generation. The restaurants are also making sure of the safety measures such as keyless entry, online check-in, and check-out.
The Government of India has come up with new initiatives called Digi Yatra platform which is an industry-led initiative coordinated by the Ministry of Civil Aviation and is in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Digital India's vision. Digi Yatra enables passengers to process entry and exits based on facial recognition systems at various checkpoints, security check – in and boarding etc. Digi Yatra will ease travel and identity checks at multiple points for air travellers. The Indian railways have done refinement like hands- free amenities, copper coated handrails, and latch plasma air purification, and titanium dioxide coating for minimizing restraint. The COVID-19 pandemic has paved the way for meaningful innovation and transformation to be accelerated in the railways and the aviation business. The pandemic has entailed the airlines and the railways to review their business top-down, bottom-up, and to modify their operations and processes for the better.
As the dramatically widespread impact of COVID-19 on tourism sector is likely to remain for a longer time, a model has been proposed for various stakeholders of the tourism industry to help recover the sector from the current scenario, which is quite novel. The forecasting model can help in strategic and operational decision-making. The findings presented in this paper will help the stakeholders and the policymakers facilitate strategic and operational planning based on the forecasted value:
This article has predicted the number of foreign tourists using the ANN model with respect to COVID-19 outbreak. Also, the Foreign Exchange Earning has been predicted using the number of tourists and exchange rates. The arrival of foreign tourists to India from different parts of the world, reduced by 80% in March 2021, has a great impact on revenue generated from tourism in the form of Foreign Exchanging Earning. Foreign Exchange Earning is reduced because of foreign tourists' fewer arrivals in this pandemic outbreak. Therefore, instead of investing more in adding new resources, policymakers and stakeholders can think about making the existing resource more efficient and effective. The author is MD – Palazzo Zafferano.
