Sanjay Gupta
Recently, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Water Resources recommended that India should renegotiate the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan to include considerations related to climate change, global warming, and environmental impact assessment of projects. Further, the Committee writes, “establish some kind of institutional structure or legislative framework to address the impact of climate change on water availability in the Indus basin and other challenges which are not covered under the Treaty”. The same Parliamentary Committee assigns climate change as a key influence to increasing incidents of glacial lake outburst floods, impact on the availability of utilisable future water supplies, and a rise in extreme events such as floods. Glacier and snow melt contributes over 40 per cent to the total runoff in the Upper Indus basin. The corresponding figures for Upper Brahmaputra and Upper Ganges basins are approximately 16 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively. This contribution from snow and glaciers is even higher during the critical dry spring months, when rainfall is minimal, and hence key to sustaining multiple socioeconomic activities. A host of studies have focused on the impact of climate change and global warming on the melting of snow and glaciers, and the resultant effect on water flows. However, climate change is also expected to impact rainfall in a significant manner – intensity, number of rainy days during the monsoon period, and quantity of overall precipitation. So, while such a recommendation is most welcome and timely, it will not be easy to implement. The current relations between India and Pakistan are not conducive to holding any unbiased discussion, based purely on science and resultant socio-economic benefits. But it does raise a set of very critical questions for India, whose geography is dominated by other transboundary river basins – Barak/ Brahmaputra and the Ganges. Not only is the main stem of each of these rivers a shared river, but multiple tributaries of these river systems are shared with Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, and Nepal. What is left unmentioned in the Committee's report is the impact that climate change will or could have on future transboundary river negotiations and on socio-economic equity. The Ganges Treaty of 1996 between Bangladesh and India is up for renegotiations and renewal in 2026. If another 30-year treaty is signed by the two countries, its duration will be beyond 2050, by when the climate change manifestations will be far more intense and treacherous. Will not the two countries consider future climate change scenarios while drafting the new Ganges treaty? Bhutan and India have displayed exemplary cooperation in the area of hydropower, with immense social, economic, and energy security-related mutual benefits accruing to both countries. Bhutan is in the process of implementing and negotiating several more hydropower projects with public and private entities, in both India and Bangladesh. Will these projects and calculated benefits need to consider the future impacts of climate change as well as effects on socio-economic equity? India and Nepal have signed multiple treaties to share waters of the shared rivers; irrigating facilities from these are crucial to the farming communities in Nepal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. Several hydropower projects are being planned jointly including the Pancheshwar Multi-purpose Project and other initiatives on Sapta-Kosi, Karnali, Bagmati, and Kamla rivers. The dynamics of existing and planned collaborative projects will be shaped by climate change impacts and socio-economic considerations, forming a key component of future negotiations. India would do well to develop a broad framework on transboundary river cooperation and leveraging of mutually shared benefits with its neighbouring countries – based on science and sustainability, intergenerational equity, and inclusive and equitable multi-stakeholder dialogue.
(The writer is an Independent Consultant with the World Bank. The views expressed are personal.)
