OpinionsIndia's strategy must factor in China’s well-established guile and deceit

India’s strategy must factor in China’s well-established guile and deceit

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's strategy must factor in China's well-established guile and deceit

Swapan Dasgupta

The Prime Minister told a meeting of the Opposition leaders on Friday that ‘no one has entered Indian territory or captured any military post. ' Then, what was that deadly brawl between the Indian soldiers and the Chinese troops all about in which twenty of our brave-hearts perished? They died defending territory we claim to be our own. Two days before the PM's shocking claim Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar had sparred with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, arguing that the Indian soldiers were killed while removing a tent on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control. It can be argued that no one had entered territory which was indisputably Indian. Such word-play does not hide the fact that the Chinese had intruded into the Indian side of the LAC in the Galwan valley and at several other points along the disputed 3,440 sq km border.

Could it be that there is more than meets the eye in Modi's assertion? Before we rush to accuse him of surrender, we may consider the likelihood of an effective and strong response against the brutal killing of our soldiers. Moreover, the impression that comes across from the PM's statement does not square with his public image as a strong and decisive leader. Besides, the costs of such a ‘surrender' to Modi the leader could be irredeemably high. He cannot be seen to be going down the Nehruvian road of defeat and abject surrender. Therefore, we trust we may yet be surprised by action on the border to avenge the deaths of our soldiers. When, where and how the Indian military will swing into action is not known. But anyone familiar with Modi's track record will know that he never forgets a slight, a betrayal. He has reason to feel personally let down by ‘my friend Xi Jinping' whom he had gone out of the way to court, holding back criticism when China most deservedly invited rap on the knuckles for its actions in regard to Hong Kong, Xinjiang, WHO et al.

The continuing buildup of the two militaries at the LAC following the Galwan valley clash also indicates that India will not allow the Chinese barbarity to go unpunished. Failure to respond will embolden a rogue China. Having moved into the Indian side of the LAC as part of its strategic plan to further secure its all- road linking the restive Tibet to the troubled Muslim-majority Xinjiang province, it illegally occupied the Galwan heights. From here it can target the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg road which is the life-line for our military in the forward positions in Aksai Chin. China did not lay claim to the Galwan valley till this all-weather road was ready. But the immediate question troubling Indians is whether we can evict China from the disputed land it has occupied since early April.

Meanwhile, this of boycotting Chinese goods can be grossly overdone. Yes, boycott by all means wherever quality and cost match the Chinese products. But rejecting Chinese goods in favour of shoddy and costlier home-made goods will be akin to cutting one's nose to spite your face. India accounts for only three percent of the total Chinese exports. Such a boycott would barely impact Chinese economy. Instead, it makes sense not to be overly concerned with the Chinese sensibilities and team up with other nations on the receiving end of the Chinese belligerence. The way Xi Jinping, who anointed himself President-for-life, conducts his foreign policy, chances are very soon aside from North Korea he will have no other nation to consider as China's friend. China exploits its military and economic power to bully its neighbours and increasingly to browbeat Europeans and North Americans alike. Numerous instances of Chinese bullying have forced a re-think in the West.

Recently, a group of American intellectuals suggested that just as NATO was formed in the wake of the Second War to defend against a potential military threat from Stalinist Russia, there now was need for a joint forum to repulse the economic aggression by an over-confident China which refuses to respect established norms of global trade and diplomacy. The short point is that the world at large has to forge a unity of purpose to fight the Chinese dadagiri. Whatever the reason why China does it — the most credible seems to be that Xi having anointed himself president for life needs to constantly prove himself to keep his ambitious rivals at bay — it cannot be allowed to menace the whole world. Hurting it economically too will require wider cooperation. Meanwhile, let us keep our fingers crossed. And hope that Modi's riposte to the Chinese perfidy is strong and successful.

The suggestion — it is probably more accurate to view it as an outburst — by Union Minister Ramdas Athawale calling on Indians to eschew Chinese food has been greeted with a mixture of bewilderment and ridicule. The Republican Party stalwart who is in alliance with the BJP has the tendency to make frivolous interventions in the Rajya Sabha which are calculated to provoke his adversaries. But his highly individualistic style doesn't imply that he lacks political sense. There is method in Athawale's seeming flippancy.

There is palpable public anger over the clash with Chinese forces on the Ladakh border that has led to the death of 20 Indian soldiers. The belief that China cannot really be trusted is a sentiment that first expressed itself during and after the border conflict in 1962 in which India was humiliated. The national humiliation rubbed off on Jawaharlal Nehru and India's first Prime Minister lost a great deal of his political sheen. It was fortunate for Nehru that the border war happened after the general election where the Congress coasted to a comfortable victory. Had the border conflict erupted into a full-scale war in 1961, the ire that was subsequently directed at V.K. Krishna Menon and Army Chief General Thapar would have been channelled against the Prime Minister.

The charge of trusting China and investing too much on developing a personal bond with Xi Jingping has now been levelled against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, while the Opposition is expected to use every opportunity to embarrass the government and try and make political capital over the loss of soldiers' lives, the charge is unlikely to stick.

First, unlike Nehru who went out of his way to portray China as a natural ally in the larger fight against Western domination, Modi has presented the relationship with our eastern neighbour as a complex problem that warrants unending attention, including attempts to effect a personal bonding with the Communist leadership. It will be difficult to point to instances where Modi — unlike Nehru — has presented a rosy picture of bonhomie.

Secondly, where Nehru was relatively lax on national security, somehow believing that China shared common ideals with India, the Modi government has taken the position that China — if not an outright enemy — is a determined adversary, and that India's strategic and economic evolution will have to factor in Beijing's subterfuge. India's focus for the past six years has been capacity enhancement and forging deeper relationships with other world powers. True, there has been a major setback in Nepal. The present political dispensation in Kathmandu appears to have more or less decided that it must terminate its special relationship with India and move formally into the embrace of Beijing. This has added to neighbourhood complications and sharply underlined the fact that China will do all it takes to pin India down.

Finally, it is also clear that China has an aversion to Indian influence in Asia and the world. Archival documents now clearly reveal that the Chinese leadership developed an allergy to Nehru because they saw him as both arrogant and a man who rose above his station. It would not be surprising if the present leadership — notwithstanding whatever political tensions that may exist between the People's Liberation Army and the political leadership — entertain a similar view of Modi. They probably view Modi as more dangerous because his foreign policy is backed by India's growing economic importance in the world. Consequently, even if the military option is exercised with caution, Beijing will persist with its schemes to constantly undermine Modi.

The perception of Modi as a major irritant who dares to oppose the Belt and Road scheme and puts obstacles in the path of China's domination of the Indian market, witness the refusal to join RCEP, is very strong. China is a very determined power that does not play by the book when it comes to furthering its national and strategic interests. The decision to redraw the LAC in the Ladakh sector was an attempt to test India's responses and try and puncture Modi's reputation both internally and externally.

It naturally follows that a bid to weaken Modi internally is an important facet of this approach. Proof of Beijing's direct involvement in India's domestic politics may be difficult to come by at present. However, if the evidence of the Soviet Union's involvement in Indian politics as revealed by the Mitrokhin archives is anything to go by, the quantum of encouragement to individuals and institutions opposed to Modi is certain to be significant. The people of India should be alert to this possibility that their internal political differences will be used by China to further its larger strategic agenda. In this climate, countervailing pressure, including the economic and cultural boycott of China, is inescapable — although care must be taken to not alienate countries such as Singapore and Taiwan where there are large numbers of resident ethnic Chinese.

Yes, as the Athawale prescription indicates, there are often excesses. But even his idea has to be kept in perspective. The battle on the Home Front involves the detection and decimation of what is best called the Vichy mentality. No further elaboration is necessary. (Courtesy: The Free Press Journal)

Northlines
Northlines
The Northlines is an independent source on the Web for news, facts and figures relating to Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh and its neighbourhood.

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